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Meanwhile, reputed 'analysts' of the Scott Ritter stature in my country are putting a 50% chance of Russia invading Moldova by autumn (plus the Baltics and probably Poland and Germany, too!!!!! Give us an extra 450 quadrillion for the defense budget, asap!!!!) - ignore this post's propaganda ending, that's not important
Roland Bartetzko
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Following
Logistics in Ukraine (2022–present)Fri
How long would it take for Russia to reach and take Zaporizhzhia assuming the current rate of Russian advances in that sector increases or stays the same?

The “current rate of Russian advances” is absolutely meaningless. It would probably take the Russians forever.

Not so much because of the distance between the current frontline and this city, but because the Russians do not have the resources to maintain pressure along the entire 1,000-mile-long frontline and commit enough troops to such a major battle.

Pokrovsk or Kupyansk, for example, are much smaller places (60k and 26k inhabitants) than Zaporizhzha (710k), and we’ve seen how difficult it is for the Russians to gain ground there. Urban environments heavily favor the defender.

Kupy'ansk. (Picture by the author of this post)

In addition, given the current situation, Russia’s war in Ukraine has all the characteristics of a war of attrition. Both sides are trying to exhaust the enemy’s resources.

The idea behind this is that once this is achieved, it will be far easier to advance on the battlefield and attain one’s objectives.

The Russians may think that once Ukraine's resources are depleted, an attack on Zaporizhzha may become a walk in the park.

The good news is that despite Ukraine’s current manpower problems, I see no signs that its armed forces have begun to slacken.

Nevertheless, urgent support is needed, and the West should not be complacent. Unfortunately, all these “Russia is advancing more slowly than the speed of a snail” internet posts aren’t very helpful in this situation. They largely miss the point of what this war is about.

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December 15, 2025
The Gaggle Music Club: Béla Bartók’s Violin Sonata No. 2

This week’s selection for The Gaggle Music Club is Béla Bartók’s Violin Sonata No. 2. The work was composed in 1922, in the immediate aftermath of World War I and the dismemberment of Hungary under the 1920 Treaty of Trianon.

For Bartók, Trianon was not merely a political catastrophe but a cultural one. Hungary’s territorial losses severed regions that had been central to his ethnomusicological work, such as Transylvania and Slovakia, where he had collected folk music for years. Moreover, the collapse of the Austro-Hungarian Empire meant that Bartók would no longer enjoy the support of the cultural institutions that had once supported him.

Unlike his Violin Sonata No. 1, which still bore traces of late Romantic exuberance, the Second Sonata is compressed, angular and severe. Bartók was consciously moving toward a style from which he had stripped away rhetorical excess in favor of concentrated gesture and structural rigor.

A decisive influence on the work’s genesis was Jelly d’Arányi, ...

00:21:35
December 18, 2025
TG 2030: Crises Engulf Serbian President Vučić

George Szamuely discusses with Dragana Trifković, director of Belgrade's Center for Geostrategic Studies, the growing crises besetting Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić.

00:44:56
December 17, 2025
TG 2029: Europeans Run Rings Around Trump

George Szamuely and Peter Lavelle discuss the abject failure of President Trump's negotiators to prevail over the desire of the Europeans to keep the war in Ukraine going, as well as their bizarre promise to provide Ukraine with "security guarantees."

00:52:13

While this guy is an obvious propagandist for the Ukro side and former Bosnia and Kosovo merc, he does highlight some interesting things

Roland Bartetzko
·
Following
Logistics in Ukraine (2022–present)Fri
Is it true that Ukraine has consistently inflicted much higher casualties on the Russian military?

Neither Russia nor Ukraine publish figures, but most experts agree that Ukrainian casualty numbers are considerably lower than Russia’s.

A good indicator is training time. Two Colombians who were fighting for Russia and were captured by Ukrainian troops near Pokrovsk stated that they had received zero training.

On the other hand, even with its known recruiting problems, nobody in Ukraine goes to the frontline without at least three weeks of training, which, in my opinion, is sufficient to achieve a minimum level of survivability on the battlefield.

A Ukrainian combat medic from an assault battalion that we support with equipment. The work of the medics and surgeons is crucial to ...

January 21, 2023
More Leftie Than Thou
"Jacobin" Magazine Celebrates A Strike Against Ol' Blue Eyes

Here at "The Gaggle" we have very little time for the "more Leftie than thou" school of thought--that's the approach to life according to which the only thing that matters is whether you take the right position on every issue under the sun from Abortion to Zelensky. No one in the world meets the exacting standards of this school of thought; any Leftie leader anywhere is always selling out to the bankers and the capitalists. The perfect exemplar of this is the unreadable Jacobin magazine. 

The other day I came across this article from 2021. It's a celebration of trade union power. And not simply trade union power, but the use of trade union power to secure political goals. Of course (and this is always the case with the "more Leftie than thou" crowd), this glorious, never-to-be-forgotten moment on the history of organized labor took place many years ago--in the summer of 1974 to be exact. Yes, almost half a century has gone by since that thrilling moment when the working-class movement of Australia mobilized and prepared to seize the means of production, distribution and exchange. 

Well, not quite. Organized labor went into action against...Ol' Blue Eyes, the Chairman of the Board, the Voice; yes, Frank Sinatra. Why? What had Sinatra done? Sinatra was certainly very rich, and he owned a variety of properties and businesses. But if the Australian trade union movement were, understandably, searching for the bright, incandescent spark that would finally awaken the working class from its slumber there were surely richer, greedier, more dishonest, more decadent, above all more Australian individuals it could have discovered. Australia was never short of them. Rupert Murdoch immediately springs to mind. Why Sinatra?

 

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