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What is really happening in Ukraine. It's very sad.

https://eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/war-stalemate

Part of the article:

Maybe the time for a breakthrough has passed, and only a technological fix against drones, will end the stalemate.

Russian Military Blogger.

Drones have definitively taken over the battlefield. In 2024, you could slip through on a motorcycle; in 2025, you could run along a tree line; now only the lucky ones reach their objective. Aerial surveillance is total. Movement between positions happens only in bad weather. Evacuation from the front line has practically stopped.

No, this isn’t another critical piece—these are reflections. The enemy’s situation isn’t any better. Our offensives are halted not by infantry, but by a line of drones. The front has become nearly deserted. “Mavic” recon drones far more often record the flight of a “Baba Yaga” bomber drone than the movements of enemy soldiers. Reaching cover and staying there for months has become a viable survival strategy.

Of course, we need a breakthrough on the front—but how can it be achieved? Even if we find another 400,000 volunteers, it won’t change the situation. You can send not one but three people into an assault, but that will only increase losses without producing a turning point.

The mechanized armies of the 20th century have lost their relevance, and the infantryman has reached the limits of human capability. As banal as it sounds, the smarter side will win.

If in 2022 the front had been held by this many enemy infantry, the Russian army would have reached Dnipropetrovsk in two days. Results like that will only be possible when “reusable armored vehicles” appear on the battlefield. For now, no armored unit can survive multiple drone strikes.

If every armored vehicle could shoot down a dozen drones, offensive operations would become viable again. Unfortunately, such machines are unlikely to appear in large numbers this year.

For now, the rule on the battlefield works flawlessly: whoever has drones that fly more accurately and more often has the advantage. But this applies only to the current stage of military technology. A breakthrough lies ahead.

If you asked me what should be done now, I would minimize attacks and infiltration attempts and direct all resources toward developing mass-produced active protection systems against drones. Infantry needs a new technological leap and new armored vehicles. Without these, we risk wasting lives without meaningful changes on the map.

—Alexander Kharchenko

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https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2036636806242873536?s=20

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@Osinttechnical
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