The demilitarization of Ukraine is almost complete
I’ve been watching Ukraine’s drone production curve for two years, and the 2026 numbers just crossed a structural threshold.
In February 2022, Ukraine produced 3,000 drones, 99% of them imported from China as complete systems. By 2023 the curve crossed 800,000, then 2.2 million in 2024, more than 4 million in 2025, and the 2026 target now sits at 7 million units with capacity to scale to 10 million.
That output is roughly 70 times current US combat drone production (Bloomberg, January 2026), and assembly is now 99% domestic. Monthly FPV output went from 20,000 in summer 2024 to over 200,000 in 2025. The largest producers (Ukraine has no traditional defense primes) build tens of thousands of units per month inside underground bunker factories at SpaceX Starlink scale.
My read: the center of European military industrial gravity has shifted 1,200 km east of Berlin since 2022, while EU defense planning still procures as if it has not. That gap is going to become a strategic liability if it is not closed within the next 24 months.
https://x.com/eye_walking/status/2056305196624413014?s=20
Ukraine is fast-tracking FP-7.x Freya, a domestic anti-ballistic missile built to hunt Russia's Iskander-M.
Fire Point is welding it together from ready European components instead of waiting years for a from-scratch system — United24. 1/ https://x.com/Mylovanov/status/2056100794357665928?s=20
Madyar on the War
Putin sends 400,000 people to the front every year. The same plan, three years running.
A full mobilization would damage the regime more than any strike on Tuapse. That is why Putin is unlikely to announce one before the fall.
Right now, approximately 700,000 Russian troops are deployed at the front. Each month, roughly 35,000 new soldiers arrive. Roughly 35,000 are killed. Ukraine's task is to make those losses higher.
In a recent interview with Ukrainska Pravda, Madyar laid out where things stand:
"Five months ago, we found Russia's weak spot. For the first time, we matched them in monthly mobilization."
"They know our problems, and we know theirs. Information moves quickly. Since December, we have maintained this balance. Our goal is to prevent Russia from gaining a manpower advantage."
"In 2026, no one is standing in line to go to war. We select people rather than grabbing everyone indiscriminately. We train fully prepared crews and supply them with ammunition that we now produce ourselves."
"We destroy the enemy within a 1,500-meter radius of the front line."
Each of Ukraine's 17 corps holds a sector of approximately 100 kilometers. Permanent units hold the line. Attached units reinforce it. Each commander bears full responsibility for his sector.
The kill zone now extends 25 kilometers on both sides of the front. Drones operate so densely across that depth that any movement becomes dangerous. This territory belongs to no one.
No occupier. No vehicle. Nothing moves safely.
Their pickup trucks, tanks, and motorcycles sit and rust.
"We burn them whenever we choose."
Russian armored vehicles have become increasingly rare near the front. Ukraine has destroyed most of what was available.
Because Russia lost access to Starlink, it is developing its own satellite communications system. Early prototypes are large and easy to detect.
"Give them a year, and they will cover the entire front with their own communications network. We are already struggling to process the volume of signals and separate noise from actionable data."
Putin is inflicting the greatest damage on his own people – extracting their money, suppressing social media, crushing freedom.
"Every dictator must know his limits. This regime knows none. And it is destroying itself."
According to Madyar, ending the war immediately is impossible. Stopping it may be possible – but only through sustained pressure.
Russia demands that Ukraine surrender the Donetsk region.
"That will never happen."
Without third-party guarantees, no agreement is possible. And even freezing the front would only give Russia several years to rearm before moving again.
"First Ukraine. Then NATO countries."
Source: translated and adopted from Tymofiy Mylovanov
https://x.com/rshereme/status/2056112836921684078?s=20
