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At last, Ursula von der Leyen and Péter Magyar will meet in Brussels on Friday for a long-awaited rendez-vous intended to break years of deadlock over billions in frozen EU funds.

But tense behind-the-scenes diplomacy and brinkmanship suggest the encounter between the Commission president and Hungary’s new prime minister, who ousted Viktor Orbán, will be anything but smooth.

Talk of a new era and rapprochement between Brussels and Budapest remains premature. The two sides are still far apart, and agreeing even a joint statement is proving difficult.

The Commission has already lowered expectations ahead of the meeting. “The Commission is doing everything to help Budapest move forward,” one senior official said, “but it’s unlikely they will get the €10 billion they are aiming for.”

For Magyar, unlocking the frozen pandemic recovery funds was one of the central promises of his election campaign. And the clock is ticking. Hungary has until the end of August to meet dozens of rule-of-law “milestones” tied to the EU’s Recovery and Resilience Facility, or risk losing access to the payouts under a national plan signed off by Brussels.

The Hungarian PM had earlier projected confidence, saying he expected to strike a political deal with the Commission on the release of the funds. He also said the negotiations extend beyond the immediate release of €10.4 billion in pandemic recovery money and also cover talks over €7 billion in non-refundable cohesion funds.

By midweek, however, the rosy picture looked very different, with confusion in both camps suggesting the talks were far from settled.

While NATO chief Mark Rutte’s office swiftly confirmed a separate meeting with Magyar, the Commission did not confirm any engagement with von der Leyen for days. When confirmation finally came, it was not for Thursday, as expected, but Friday.

Von der Leyen also insisted that Budapest submit detailed implementation plans before locking in any deals. Hungary has been told it must submit its revised national plan immediately, according to one senior Commission official, ahead of the Commission’s end-of-May deadline – now just days away.

The broader political context is also significant. Hungary remains the main obstacle to advancing Ukraine’s EU accession process, having blocked progress in opening the first negotiating “clusters” with Kyiv.

As several Council diplomats told me, the two files are deeply intertwined. Progress on frozen EU funds and movement on Ukraine are now widely viewed as part of the same political equation.

The Commission is expected to formally propose kicking off the process for both Ukraine and Moldova on 16 June, my colleague Magnus Lund Nielsen reported, at a meeting of EU ministers in Brussels.

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