Hard to know what to make of this BBC story. First, it's hard to believe MoD employees can walk out of the office with classified documents stuffed in their briefcases. Second, it's hard to believe people still read documents in paper format and not online. Third, it's hard to believe that an MoD employee, having walked out of the office with classified documents, would then be stupid enough to leave documents behind on a bus or at a bus stop--while he went off for a pint. But this is what the BBC will have us believe happened.

Be that as it may, if the documents found in Kent are what they purport to be, then it seems the MoD knew that Russia would respond forcefully to HMS Defender's entry into territorial waters around Crimea.

"Following the controversy generated by HMS Defender's mission," the BBC writes, "the documents discovered in Kent confirm that passage...was a calculated decision by the British government to make a show of support for Ukraine, despite the possible risks involved."

To what end? Since 2014, the British have repeated ad nauseam that they do not recognize Crime as part of the Russian Federation. Fine. They are entitled to hold that position. But what do they hope to achieve now? Do the British plan to "liberate" Crimea? Do they plan to make a landing on Crimea? Do they plan to fight a war with Russia on behalf of Ukraine? There are no answers to these questions in these documents. One must assume the answer is no.

The BBC helpfully continues:

Was this gunboat diplomacy? It was certainly the use of a warship in pursuit of diplomatic goals. But its primary objective was not to "poke the Russian bear" (a phrase and sentiment conspicuously absent from the documents). This was all about freedom of navigation and a clear endorsement of Ukraine's sovereignty, following Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014.

This of course is a nonsensical argument. The British do not recognize Israeli annexation of the Golan Heights. Do the British therefore plan to make an excursion to the Golan Heights next week? Russia holds that Kosovo continues to be part of Serbia. Should we expect Russian forces tomorrow to enter Kosovo having perhaps been granted permission to do so by the Belgrade authorities?

What Boris Johnson's government did this week was nothing other than "poking the bear." The British were antagonizing Russia with no strategic goal in mind other than antagonizing her. There is nothing whatsoever the British can do about Crimea other than to make pointless gestures. If that's all there was to it, that might be harmless enough. If push comes to shove, the British can always quickly de-escalate, scarper and cry: "It was all meant in fun, and a jolly good time was had by one and all."

On the other hand, to the extent that such actions on the part of the British lead the authorities in Kiev to believe that the British or the Americans or NATO might go to war on their behalf to "win back" Crimea or the Donbass, then such actions are the height of recklessness. They serve only to fuel further war in Ukraine, a war that Ukraine cannot hope to win and can only lead to a national catastrophe.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57624942.amp