This piece of shit not-war will go on for a loooong time (or you can trust shitbags like escobarf, ritter or the good ole colonel, who prophesized the imminent Russian victory back in 2022 and counting)

Roland Bartetzko
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Following
Logistics in Ukraine (2022–present)22h
Could Ukraine withstand a mass mobilization of the Russian military?

Yes, it could, for the following reasons:

If the Russians were to declare a full mobilization, it would require a lot of resources, for example, food, fuel, equipment, instructors, and living quarters.

Russia does not have these resources and would be forced to invest a great deal of money and effort into them. Of course, this money and workforce would have to come from somewhere. They are unable to increase their defense budget, so all they can do is save money in other defense sectors, for example, on combat operations (the most costly one) or on air defense. Of course, this would weaken their war effort.

Due to the drone threat, large-scale combat operations are impossible to conduct at the moment. So what are the Russians going to do with these additional infantrymen? They would simply clog up an already overstretched logistics and supply system.

Ukraine is currently increasing its medium- and long-range drone strike capabilities. Ukraine has the know-how and the production capacity, while the Europeans have the money. While the trenches on the frontline were fully manned, the Russian hinterland would be completely razed by an ever-growing number of Ukrainian drone strikes.

Of course, such a full mobilization would also be highly unpopular in Russia. Given how things are currently going, this is the last thing Putin can afford.
A "Vampire" heavy bomber drone in our office/warehouse in Ukraine. (Picture by the author of this post)

So no, drafting every eligible man would not help the Russians win the war. What they need instead is a smarter approach.

Russian air defense needs to be be completely reorganized and, at the same time, the country needs to adjust its objectives in Ukraine. This means that the only viable option left for them is to straighten the frontline and plead for a ceasefire, followed by peace negotiations.

Of course, we all know that won't happen. What we will witness in the coming months will be the complete dismantling of Russia's military apparatus.

Roland Bartetzko
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Following
Logistics in Ukraine (2022–present)18h
Why is Ukraine focusing on making the war too expensive for Russia instead of going for a direct military breakthrough?

What Ukraine is focusing on is dictated by the tools they have at hand: the resources available to them, and how much aid they receive from their partners in the West.

They simply do not have the military power for a “military breakthrough”. In addition, any large attack would be immediately detected by the enemy and destroyed. Ukraine also hasn’t mastered the art of maneuver warfare, even when it was still the dominant doctrine in 2022 and 2023.

This doesn’t mean, however, that Ukraine is simply sitting around producing as many drones as possible trying to destroy the enemy’s military and energy infrastructure.
Baby Groot and the Rocket Raccoon are heading eastwards. (Picture by the author of this post)

Everyone in Ukraine (or at least those who are in a position to know these things) is aware of the fact that, with the current tactics, spectacular and successful as they are, the Russians are probably not to be pushed out of Crimea or Donbas.

Therefore, besides drone operators, the Armed Forces of Ukraine also continue to extensively train soldiers of all branches (infantry, armour, artillery, etc.).

Should the possibility arise again (due to technological innovation or a complete degradation of enemy forces), to move larger combat formations on the battlefield, the army will certainly be ready.

In this regard, we should not make the mistake of underestimating the Russians in this phase. They still retain the ability to dig in and resist.