Once again, the 'mighty' Russian army is incapable of doing these things on its own and has to beg, hope and rely on the true and ultimate kingmaker of this not-war war, US of A

Roland Bartetzko
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Logistics in Ukraine (2022–present)Tue
Col. Markus Reisner of the Theresian Military Academy recently stated in an interview with Austria’s Der Standard that there is “a looming danger of a forced, disadvantageous peace agreement for Ukraine.” Do you agree with his assessment?

I consider Colonel Reisner to be the best military analyst when it comes to the situation in Ukraine.

The reason he isn't more popular is probably because a) he gives his assessments in German, b) he is not a daily commentator but instead specializes in deeper analysis, and c) he does it all without sensational claims, hyperbole, or non-military language.

In his latest interview with the Austrian newspaper Der Standard, titled “Has Trump betrayed Ukraine?”, he makes the following points:

Because of the ongoing Russian drone and missile strikes, Ukraine is under a lot of pressure. According to Reisner, Ukraine’s losses are serious, and the Russian attacks on its energy infrastructure may cause a serious humanitarian crisis.
In this situation, Ukraine is heavily dependent on its partners, especially American weapons and systems such as Patriot interceptor missiles, Starlink satellite communications, and US early warning systems (Predator drones over the Black Sea, satellite intelligence, etc.).
Without the Patriots, Ukraine cannot defend against ballistic missiles. Without Starlink, Ukrainian forces risk losing capabilities they need to operate their interceptor drones against Russian Geran-4 and Geran-5 drones. And without US intelligence, Ukraine has no adequate warning before incoming Russian ballistic missile strikes.
According to Reisner, Europe cannot replace these capabilities in the short term.
To make matters worse, Trump may decide to suspend the PURL program, through which European countries buy American missiles and ammunition for Ukraine. Again, according to Reisner, Europe is unable to produce sufficient ammunition to fill these gaps.

Colonel Markus Reisner. (Picture: Austrian Army)

Reisner comes to the following conclusion:

“We are essentially in a situation where neither side can really advance or retreat. This is also the reason why the conflict is escalating at the strategic level. Both sides know that these attacks put them under massive pressure. Russia knows that it cannot sustain a situation indefinitely in which one refinery after another goes up in flames, just as Ukraine cannot endure a situation in which one city after another becomes uninhabitable, as is happening in Sumy.

The paradox is that this escalation, combined with the fact that the United States is the kingmaker, could have far-reaching consequences. We may like it or not, but that is the reality. As Europeans, we are unfortunately often confronted with the fact that we are relegated to the cheap seats, with hardly anyone talking to us. We always want to be part of the game, but we can still do very little to influence its outcome. We can see this happening right now in the negotiations.

The kingmaker has decided to put pressure on both sides. It is putting pressure on Russia, at least so far, by providing Ukraine with targeting data. But it is also putting pressure on Ukraine, for example by withholding Patriots that it needs to defend itself against Russian attacks, or through the recent restrictions on Starlink and similar systems.

This could, of course, lead to a culmination point at which one side is ultimately forced to give in, perhaps even to capitulate.

Given that Russia appears to be in a strong position thanks to allies such as China, while Ukraine is losing its most important allies, there is a danger that Ukraine will be placed at a severe disadvantage and forced to accept what is effectively a dictated peace or a dictated ceasefire. That is certainly one of the possibilities we have to consider.”

I do not agree with everything the Colonel said, especially when it comes to Trump’s motives, but I certainly agree with the main points of his conclusion:

Ukraine may be forced to agree to a foul deal, and to avoid this, the Europeans have to move their asses.