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Ignoring the propaganda parts as usual, he does say some interesting things
Roland Bartetzko
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Logistics in Ukraine (2022–present)Thu
Are recent (2/17/26) Ukrainian gains likely to stick and turn into a real turning point or is this just another small fluctuation in the war?

Unlike in WWII, with Stalingrad and Kursk, there probably won’t be any turning points or decisive battles in this war. However, there are trends and indicators that are in Ukraine's favor.

The recently liberated areas on the southern frontline were mostly in the gray zone, and they switched from “contested” or “claimed by Russia” to “claimed by Ukraine” or “confirmed Ukrainian territory.” In other words, the land wasn’t exactly a Russian stronghold. The Russians gained these areas only recently and, probably due to the bad weather and the drone situation, they weren’t able to dig in there.

That they’ve been cut off from access to Starlink has most probably also played a role. Russian Molniya drones that were efficiently attacking Ukrainian supply lines at the far end of the war zone have been rendered inoperable or have only limited capabilities, and this has helped Ukrainian offensive operations.

What is important in these recent developments is the following:

Russia has been relentlessly attacking Ukrainian frontline positions for over a year now, and there have been several reports from Ukrainian frontline commanders stating that the Russians have lost their momentum. This is probably due to a number of factors, such as exhaustion and a lack of supplies.
Russian forces have been shown to be inefficient in consolidating land gains. Whenever they were able to make fast advances, they lost these areas a short while later (examples are Dobropillya and also the recent operations on the southern front).

A Russian “Molniya 2” drone with a Star-Link. (Picture: Serhyy “Flash”)

The situation will probably get worse for the Russians. They seem to be incapable of replacing Starlink with a domestically produced equivalent, and they are also running out of resources.

However, these trends may very well be reversed if, for example, the Kremlin raises taxes, confiscates property, and introduces the draft. Of course, these measures are extremely unpopular and may lead to wider unrest.

On the Ukrainian side, everything depends on the West continuing its support. I'm optimistic that there will be no further impediments. Now that the Trump administration is openly siding with Moscow, Europe and the rest of the world have understood that they have to manage without the United States. The uncertainty factor has been removed.

Therefore, I think there is reason for careful optimism. The war is far from over, but Ukraine has shown that it is extremely resilient. Too resilient for Moscow.

Once again, not only Putin but also Trump have completely underestimated Ukrainian resilience and strength. Moscow has finally begun to realize that it cannot win this war.

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